The GCI Dashboard

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Country Rank


South Africa

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating


Recovery Index
(Out of 100)

(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating


Severity Index
(Out of 100)

(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating


(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


(Medium Density)

GNI per capita (US$)


(Upper middle income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)

2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)

Travel Advisory

________________________________________ From: Timatic Alert [No Reply] Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2020 10:53:01 PM (UTC+08:00) Kuala Lumpur, Singapore To: Woody Ang Woo Teck
Subject: SOUTH AFRICA Timatic Update Notification SOUTH AFRICA, UPDATETIME__(UTC), Dear Woody Ang, Thank you for subscribing to Timatic COVID-19 Alerts! The information on
following countries has been changed, Country: SOUTH AFRICA, Restriction Level: Partially Restrictive, Latest Regulations: Published 13.10.2020

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.

South Africa Infection Trend

How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.

Countries with Similar Characteristics

This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

South Africa 63.31 58,558,270 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg
Country Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature since First Case (Celsius) Match%
Iran 52.94 82,913,906 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Turkey 65.11 83,429,615 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Thailand 82.15 69,625,582 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 85%
Congo Democratic Republic 57.06 86,790,567 Medium Density Low income 26-30 deg 60%
Egypt 57.73 100,388,073 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
France 27.50 67,059,887 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 60%
Germany 68.28 83,132,799 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 60%
Italy 47.84 60,297,396 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 60%
Kenya 54.34 52,573,973 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
Myanmar 45.19 54,045,420 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%

GCI Recovery Forecast

The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

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