The Global COVID-19 Index (GCI) - GCI Top 10 Forecast

GCI Top 10 Recovery Forecast

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The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

(1) Kuwait Forecast Results:

Situation Unchanged. No forecast as Active cases have neither increased nor decreased in the past 7 to 14 days.

(2) India Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(3) Saudi Arabia Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(4) China Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.

(5) Rwanda Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(6) Sri Lanka Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(7) Qatar Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(8) Cuba Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(9) Chile Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(10) Malaysia Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(1) Thailand Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(2) Malaysia Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(3) Saudi Arabia Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(4) United Kingdom Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(5) Canada Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(6) Qatar Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(7) Cambodia Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(8) Portugal Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(9) Chile Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(10) India Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

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