GCI Top 10 Recovery Forecast

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The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

(1) Bhutan Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(2) United Arab Emirates Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(3) Sri Lanka Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.

(4) Kazakhstan Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.

(5) China Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(6) Czech Republic Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.

(7) Cuba Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(8) Iran Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(9) Azerbaijan Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(10) Sweden Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(1) Sweden Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(2) Bhutan Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(3) Malaysia Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.

(4) Saudi Arabia Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(5) Thailand Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(6) Hong Kong SAR, China Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.

(7) United Arab Emirates Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

(8) Cambodia Forecast Results:

Best Situation The GCI Model and data indicates that the country has reached 0 active cases and is free from new infections. The Government should consider restoring some kind of normalcy to the country.

(9) China Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

(10) Denmark Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.






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