The GCI Dashboard

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Country Rank

151


Bulgaria

Recovery Rank for 180 countries/regions

Country Rank

177


Bulgaria

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

2

Recovery Index
47.56
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

1

Recovery Index
24.57
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

4

Severity Index
51.43
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
50.05
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

52.17

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


Population
6,975,761

(Medium Density)


GNI per capita (US$)

8860

(Upper middle income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)

4
3
2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
2
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory


1. Passengers are not allowed to enter until 30 April 2021. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See), their spouses and children; - nationals of Albania, Australia, Belarus,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Georgia, Israel, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, New Zealand, North Macedonia (Rep.), Rwanda, Serbia,
Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay; - British nationals; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or Vatican City (Holy See), their spouses and children; - family members
of British nationals with a residence permit with ¯Type of permit: Article 50 TEU" issued by Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden or Switzerland; - passengers with a "D" visa issued by Bulgaria, and their family members; - passengers with a diplomatic, official or service passport
traveling on duty, and their family members; - passengers with an Alien's passport issued by Estonia and Latvia; - passengers traveling as students; - deadheading crew; - military
personnel; - merchant seamen.

2. Passengers must have a medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test result. The test must have been taken at most 72 hours before arrival. The
certificate must contain passengers details, name of the laboratory, the test method, and the test result written in Latin characters. -This does not apply to: - nationals of
Bulgaria, their spouses and children; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Bulgaria, their spouses and children; - British nationals and their family members with one of
the following documents issued by Bulgaria: - a certificate of application for a new residence permit; or - a residence permit which specifies ¯Type of permit: Article 50 TEU" and
with the ¯Remark" 18(4); or - a residence card issued before 31 December 2020; - merchant seamen.

3. Passengers could be subject to a Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and quarantine for 10 days upon arrival.

4. National ID cards, passports, and residence documents issued to nationals of Bulgaria which expired between 13 March 2020 and 31 January 2021, are considered valid with an
extension of 6 months, starting from their expiry date.

5. Nationals and residents of Bulgaria and their family members without a medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test result of a test taken at most 72
hours before arrival are subject to: - Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test within 24 hours of arrival; or - quarantine for 10 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.


Bulgaria Infection Trend


How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, weā€™ve found that focusing on the countryā€™s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.


Countries with Similar Characteristics


This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Bulgaria 24.57 47.56 6,975,761 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg
Country Recovery Index Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature
since First Case (Celsius)
Match%
Albania 23.91 50.14 2,854,191 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Azerbaijan 40.36 52.92 10,023,318 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 24.78 38.67 3,301,000 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Serbia 35.40 50.39 6,944,975 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Armenia 44.72 46.70 2,957,731 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%
Belarus 65.07 84.64 9,466,856 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%
Costa Rica 40.16 59.68 5,047,561 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 85%
Equatorial Guinea 47.67 51.61 1,355,986 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 85%
Georgia 55.75 71.50 3,720,382 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%
North Macedonia 22.38 38.07 2,083,459 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%

GCI Recovery Forecast


The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.



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