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Country Rank

161


Bulgaria

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

2

Recovery Index
31.49
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

2

Severity Index
31.19
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

47.83

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


Population
6,975,761

(Medium Density)


GNI per capita (US$)

8860

(Upper middle income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)

4
3
2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
2
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory


1. Passengers are not allowed to enter. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San
Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See), and their spouses and children; - British nationals and their spouses and children; - nationals
of Albania, Australia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Georgia, Israel, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, New Zealand, North
Macedonia (Rep.), Rwanda, Serbia, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Andorra, Austria, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom or Vatican City (Holy See), and their
spouses and children; - passengers with a "D" visa issued by Bulgaria; - passengers with a diplomatic, official or service passport traveling on duty, and their family members; -
passengers with an Alien's passport issued by Estonia and Latvia; - passengers traveling as students; - deadheading crew; - military personnel.

2. All national ID cards issued to nationals of Bulgaria and which have expired between 13 March 2020 and 31 October 2020, are considered valid with a prolongation of 6 months.

3. Passengers must have a printed medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival. The certificate must be in
Bulgarian or English. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Bulgaria and their spouses and children; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Bulgaria and their spouses and
children; - passengers arriving from Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece,
Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay or
Vatican City (Holy See).

4. Passengers could be subject to Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and quarantine for 14 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.


Bulgaria Infection Trend


How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.


Countries with Similar Characteristics


This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Bulgaria 31.49 6,975,761 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg
Country Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature since First Case (Celsius) Match%
Albania 38.76 2,854,191 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Azerbaijan 48.29 10,023,318 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 27.94 3,301,000 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Serbia 59.58 6,944,975 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Armenia 26.97 2,957,731 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%
Belarus 60.66 9,466,856 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%
Costa Rica 26.98 5,047,561 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 85%
Equatorial Guinea 51.83 1,355,986 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 85%
Georgia 27.90 3,720,382 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%
North Macedonia 37.51 2,083,459 Medium Density Upper middle income < 10 deg 85%

GCI Recovery Forecast


The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.



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