The Global COVID-19 Index (GCI) - Bulgaria Dashboard

The GCI Dashboard

Version:

Country Rank

104

Bulgaria

Recovery Rank for 180 countries/regions

Country Rank

126

Bulgaria

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

3

Recovery Index
60.70
(Out of 100)

(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

2

Recovery Index
44.74
(Out of 100)

(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

4

Severity Index
56.52
(Out of 100)

(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
46.47
(Out of 100)

(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

52.17

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)

Population

6,975,761

(Medium Density)

GNI per capita (US$)

8860

(Upper middle income)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating Guide

5	Countries who have made the most progress in curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)
4
3
2	Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis and who may need to consider maintaining stringent non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1

COVID-19 Severity Rating Guide

1	Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population (Relative Rating)
2
3	Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population (Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory

Bulgaria - published 13.01.2021

1. Passengers are not allowed to enter until 31 January 2021. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See), and their spouses and children; - nationals of Albania, Australia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Georgia, Israel, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, New Zealand, North Macedonia (Rep.), Rwanda, Serbia, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or Vatican City (Holy See), and their spouses and children; - passengers with a "D" visa issued by Bulgaria, and their family members; - passengers with a diplomatic, official or service passport traveling on duty, and their family members; - passengers with an Alien's passport issued by Estonia and Latvia; - passengers traveling as students; - deadheading crew; - military personnel. 2. Passengers must have a printed medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival. The certificate must be in Bulgarian or English. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Bulgaria and their spouses and children; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Bulgaria and their spouses and children; - passengers arriving from Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay or Vatican City (Holy See). 3. Passengers could be subject to a Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and quarantine for 10 days upon arrival. 4. All national ID cards issued to nationals of Bulgaria and which have expired between 13 March 2020 and 31 January 2021, are considered valid with a prolongation of 6 months. 5. Flights from the United Kingdom to Bulgaria are suspended until 31 January 2021. - This does not apply to nationals and residents of Bulgaria, and their family members. 6. Until 31 January 2021; nationals and residents of Bulgaria and their family members, arriving from the United Kingdom without a medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival are subject to quarantine for 10 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.

1. Passengers are not allowed to enter until 31 January 2021. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See), and their spouses and children; - nationals of Albania, Australia,
Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Georgia, Israel, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, New Zealand, North Macedonia (Rep.), Rwanda,
Serbia, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and Uruguay; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus,
Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands,
Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or Vatican City (Holy See), and their spouses and children; - passengers with a "D"
visa issued by Bulgaria, and their family members; - passengers with a diplomatic, official or service passport traveling on duty, and their family members; - passengers with an
Alien's passport issued by Estonia and Latvia; - passengers traveling as students; - deadheading crew; - military personnel.

2. Passengers must have a printed medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival. The certificate must be in
Bulgarian or English. -This does not apply to: - nationals of Bulgaria and their spouses and children; - passengers with a residence permit issued by Bulgaria and their spouses and
children; - passengers arriving from Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece,
Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Romania, Rwanda, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay or Vatican City (Holy See).

3. Passengers could be subject to a Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and quarantine for 10 days upon arrival.

4. All national ID cards issued to nationals of Bulgaria and which have expired between 13 March 2020 and 31 January 2021, are considered valid with a prolongation of 6 months.

5. Flights from the United Kingdom to Bulgaria are suspended until 31 January 2021. - This does not apply to nationals and residents of Bulgaria, and their family members.

6. Until 31 January 2021; nationals and residents of Bulgaria and their family members, arriving from the United Kingdom without a medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus
(COVID-19) PCR test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival are subject to quarantine for 10 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.

Bulgaria Infection Trend

How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.

Countries with Similar Characteristics

This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Country	Recovery Index	Recovery Index	Population	Density	GNI per capita	Average Temperature since First Case (Celsius)	Match%
Bulgaria	44.74	60.70	6,975,761	Medium Density	Upper middle income	11-20 deg
Albania	22.10	39.13	2,854,191	Medium Density	Upper middle income	11-20 deg	100%
Azerbaijan	54.58	75.66	10,023,318	Medium Density	Upper middle income	11-20 deg	100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	30.30	39.99	3,301,000	Medium Density	Upper middle income	11-20 deg	100%
Serbia	46.39	56.94	6,944,975	Medium Density	Upper middle income	11-20 deg	100%
Armenia	51.23	62.36	2,957,731	Medium Density	Upper middle income	< 10 deg	85%
Belarus	60.60	80.40	9,466,856	Medium Density	Upper middle income	< 10 deg	85%
Costa Rica	27.97	47.85	5,047,561	Medium Density	Upper middle income	26-30 deg	85%
Equatorial Guinea	50.90	51.83	1,355,986	Medium Density	Upper middle income	26-30 deg	85%
Georgia	53.71	69.93	3,720,382	Medium Density	Upper middle income	< 10 deg	85%
North Macedonia	33.76	46.03	2,083,459	Medium Density	Upper middle income	< 10 deg	85%

GCI Recovery Forecast

The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.

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Partnership with:

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