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Country Rank

121


Italy

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

3

Recovery Index
47.84
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
47.82
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

47.83

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


Population
60,297,396

(Medium Density)


GNI per capita (US$)

33740

(High income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)

4
3
2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
2
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory


1. Passengers are not allowed to enter. - This does not apply to: - nationals of Italy; - nationals of and family members of nationals of Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See), who have not transited through or have been
in Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, North Macedonia
(Rep.), Oman, Panama or Peru in the past 14 days; - British nationals, family members of British nationals and of residents of the United Kingdom, who have not transited through or
have been in Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, North
Macedonia (Rep.), Oman, Panama or Peru in the past 14 days; -residents and family members of residents of Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and Vatican City (Holy See), who have not transited through or have been in Algeria,
Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, North Macedonia (Rep.), Oman,
Panama or Peru in the past 14 days; - passengers arriving from Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Japan, Korea (Rep.), Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Tunisia, United Kingdom or Uruguay, who have not transited through or have been in
Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, North Macedonia (Rep.),
Oman, Panama or Peru in the past 14 days; - partners of a resident of Italy. They must present proof of their relationship. They must have not transited through or have been in
Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, North Macedonia (Rep.),
Oman, Panama or Peru in the past 14 days; - passengers traveling on business; - passengers returning via Italy to their country of residence; - students.

2. Passengers who have transited through or have been in Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kuwait, Moldova
(Rep.), North Macedonia (Rep.), Oman, Panama or Peru in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter and transit. - This does not apply to: - nationals of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino,
Switzerland, Vatican City (Holy See) and EEA Member States who were residing in Italy before 9 July 2020; - British nationals who were residing in Italy before 9 July 2020; -
family members of British nationals and of nationals of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Switzerland, Vatican City (Holy See) and EEA Member States who were residing in Italy before 9
July 2020; - military personnel traveling on duty.

3. Passengers who have transited through or have been in Kosovo (Rep.) or Montenegro in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter and transit. - This does not apply to: -
nationals of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Switzerland, Vatican City (Holy See) and EEA Member State who were residing in Italy before 16 July 2020; - British nationals who were
residing in Italy before 16 July 2020; - family members of British nationals and of nationals of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Switzerland, Vatican City (Holy See) and EEA Member
States who were residing in Italy before 16 July 2020; - military personnel traveling on duty.

4. Passengers who in the past 14 days have been to or transited through Belgium, Czechia, France, Netherlands, Spain or the United Kingdom and who arrive without a medical
certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) molecular or antigenic test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival, are subject to taking the test upon arrival or within
48 hours from arrival.

5. Passengers could be subject to self-isolation for 14 days. More Coronavirus (COVID-19) related information can be found at
www.esteri.it/mae/en/ministero/normativaonline/decreto-iorestoacasa-domande-frequenti/focus-cittadini-italiani-in-rientro-dall-estero-e-cittadini-stranieri-in-italia.html

6. Passengers must present a completed self-declaration form prior to boarding. The form can be obtained at:
https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/ministero/normativaonline/decreto-iorestoacasa-domande-frequenti/focus-cittadini-italiani-in-rientro-dall-estero-e-cittadini-stranieri-in-italia.html

7. Passengers arriving in Sardinia must present a completed "Health Declaration Form" upon arrival. The form can be obtained at:
sus.regione.sardegna.it/sus/covid19/regimbarco/init

8. Passengers arriving in Calabria must present a completed "Health Declaration Form" upon arrival. The form can be obtained at: https://home.rcovid19.it/

9. Passengers arriving in Puglia must present a completed "Health Declaration Form" upon arrival. The form can be obtained at
www.regione.puglia.it/web/salute-sport-e-buona-vita/-/riapertura-delle-regioni-regole-per-gli-spostamenti-da-e-per-la-puglia 10. Passengers arriving in Sicily must present a
completed "Health Declaration Form" upon arrival. The form can be obtained at www.lasicilia.it/userUpload/moduloregione.pdf 11. Flights from Algeria, Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Dominican Rep., Kosovo (Rep.), Kuwait, Moldova (Rep.), Montenegro, North Macedonia (Rep.), Oman, Panama, Peru and Serbia are
suspended. 12. Passengers arriving in Sicily from Croatia, France (Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, Corsica, Hauts-de-France, Ile-de-France, New Aquitaine, Occitania, Provence-Alpes-Cote
d'Azur regions), Greece, Malta or Spain are subject to Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test on arrival. - This does not apply to passengers with a medical certificate with a negative
Coronavirus (COVID-19) test result issued at most 72 hours before arrival.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.


Italy Infection Trend


How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.


Countries with Similar Characteristics


This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Italy 47.84 60,297,396 Medium Density High income < 10 deg
Country Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature since First Case (Celsius) Match%
France 27.50 67,059,887 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 100%
Germany 68.28 83,132,799 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 100%
Congo Democratic Republic 57.06 86,790,567 Medium Density Low income 26-30 deg 60%
Egypt 57.73 100,388,073 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
Iran 52.94 82,913,906 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 60%
Kenya 54.34 52,573,973 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
Myanmar 45.19 54,045,420 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
South Africa 63.31 58,558,270 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 60%
Tanzania 35.77 58,005,463 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
Thailand 82.15 69,625,582 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 60%

GCI Recovery Forecast


The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation Worsening. Infections are forecasted to continue to be on the rise. Interventions are required, if not already in place.



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