The GCI Dashboard

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Country Rank

123


Italy

Recovery Rank for 180 countries/regions

Country Rank

150


Italy

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

3

Recovery Index
56.46
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

2

Recovery Index
37.83
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

4

Severity Index
50.03
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
52.28
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

82.61

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


Population
60,297,396

(Medium Density)


GNI per capita (US$)

33740

(High income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)

4
3
2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
2
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory


1. Until 30 April 2021, passengers are not allowed to enter . - This does not apply to: - nationals of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San
Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See); - passengers with a long-term residence permit or a long term "D" visa issued by Switzerland or
an EEA Member State; - family members of nationals and residents of Switzerland or an EEA Member State; - passenger with proof of being unmarried partners of residents of Italy; -
passengers who in the past 14 days have only been to or transited through Andorra, Austria, Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France (including Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, Reunion and Mayotte), Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Israel, Japan, Korea Rep., Latvia, Liechtenstein,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand or
United Kingdom; - passengers traveling on business; - passengers returning via Italy to their country of residence; - students; - military personnel.

2. Until 30 April 2021, passengers who have been in or transited through Brazil in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter and transit. - This does not apply to: - passengers
residing in Italy since before 13 February 2021; - parents of children younger than 18 years who are residing in Italy; - military personnel.

3. A completed self-declaration form must be presented prior to boarding. The form can be obtained at
https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/ministero/normativaonline/decreto-iorestoacasa-domande-frequenti/focus-cittadini-italiani-in-rientro-dall-estero-e-cittadini-stranieri-in-italia.html .

4. Passengers arriving in Sardinia must present a completed registration form upon arrival. The form can be obtained before departure at
https://sus.regione.sardegna.it/sus/covid19/regimbarco/init;jsessionid=DBC60851683A8F71D64CBFA6632E9138.sus2?lang=en .

5. Passengers arriving in Calabria, Puglia or Sicily must present a completed health declaration form upon arrival. The form can be obtained for: - Calabria at
https://home.rcovid19.it/ ; - Puglia at https://www.sanita.puglia.it/web/pugliasalute/autosegnalazione-coronavirus ; - Sicily at https://testcovid.costruiresalute.it/ .

6. Until 30 April 2021, passengers who in the past 14 days have only been in or transited through Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France (including Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, Runion and Mayotte), Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Israel, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or United Kingdom must have a negative COVID-19 molecular
or antigen test result, based on a swab. The test must be taken at most 48 hours before arrival. They are subject to self-isolation for 5 days and a COVID-19 molecular or antigen
test on day

5. - This does not apply to: - passengers who are staying in Italy for a maximum of 120 hours; - military personnel; - passengers younger than 2 years.

7. Until 30 April 2021, passengers who have been in or transited through Brazil in the past 14 days must have a negative COVID-19 molecular or antigen test result, based on a
swab. The test must have been taken at most 72 hours before arrival; and - are subject to a COVID-19 test upon arrival; and - are subject to self-isolation for 14 days. - This does
not apply to passengers younger than 2 years.

8. Passengers could be subject to self-isolation for 14 days. More details can be found at https://infocovid.viaggiaresicuri.it/index_en.html .

9. Residence permits issued by Italy which expired or will expire between 1 August 2020 and 30 April 2021 are considered valid until 30 April 2021.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.


Italy Infection Trend


How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.


Countries with Similar Characteristics


This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Italy 37.83 56.46 60,297,396 Medium Density High income < 10 deg
Country Recovery Index Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature
since First Case (Celsius)
Match%
France 41.36 45.63 67,059,887 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 100%
Germany 60.24 72.82 83,132,799 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 100%
Congo Democratic Republic 52.08 64.82 86,790,567 Medium Density Low income 26-30 deg 60%
Egypt 40.89 49.01 100,388,073 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
Iran 39.41 53.08 82,913,906 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 60%
Kenya 39.94 48.12 52,573,973 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
Myanmar 62.10 83.59 54,045,420 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
South Africa 66.55 75.69 58,558,270 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 60%
Tanzania 33.68 40.19 58,005,463 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
Thailand 67.30 74.71 69,625,582 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 60%

GCI Recovery Forecast


The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.



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