The GCI Dashboard

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Country Rank

145


Italy

Recovery Rank for 180 countries/regions

Country Rank

145


Italy

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

2

Recovery Index
49.32
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

2

Recovery Index
37.54
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

4

Severity Index
64.08
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
55.38
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

78.26

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


Population
60,297,396

(Medium Density)


GNI per capita (US$)

33740

(High income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)

4
3
2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
2
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory


1. Passengers are not allowed to enter until 5 March 2021. - This does not apply to: - nationals of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Italy, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Vatican City (Holy See); - passengers with a long-term residence permit or a long term "D" visa issued by Switzerland or an EEA
Member State; - family members of nationals and residents of Switzerland or an EEA Member State; - passenger with proof of being unmarried partners of residents of Italy; -
passengers who in the past 14 days have only been to or transited through Andorra, Austria, Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France (including Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, Reunion and Mayotte), Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Japan, Korea Rep., Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or Thailand; - military
personnel.

2. Passengers who have been in or transited through Brazil in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter and transit until 31 January 2021.

3. A completed self-declaration form must be presented prior to boarding. The form can be obtained at
https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/ministero/normativaonline/decreto-iorestoacasa-domande-frequenti/focus-cittadini-italiani-in-rientro-dall-estero-e-cittadini-stranieri-in-italia.html .

4. Passengers who in the past 14 days have only been to or transited through Australia, Japan, Korea Rep., New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore or Thailand, are subject to
self-isolation for 14 days.

5. Until 5 March 2021, passengers who in the past 14 days have only been to or transited through Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France (including Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, Runion and Mayotte), Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Rep.), Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden or Switzerland must: - have a medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus
(COVID-19) molecular or antigenic test taken at most 48 hours before arrival; and -are subject to self-isolation.

6. Passengers residing in Italy since before 23 December 2020 and who have been to or transited through the United Kingdom in the past 14 days, must have a medical certificate
with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) molecular or antigenic test, based on a nasal swab. The test must have been taken at most 72 hours before arrival; and - are subject to
Coronavirus (COVID-19) test upon arrival; and - are subject to self-isolation for 14 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.


Italy Infection Trend


How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.


Countries with Similar Characteristics


This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Italy 37.54 49.32 60,297,396 Medium Density High income < 10 deg
Country Recovery Index Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature
since First Case (Celsius)
Match%
France 53.67 67.25 67,059,887 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 100%
Germany 60.23 70.52 83,132,799 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 100%
Congo Democratic Republic 43.45 45.17 86,790,567 Medium Density Low income 26-30 deg 60%
Egypt 48.02 53.20 100,388,073 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
Iran 51.15 63.65 82,913,906 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 60%
Kenya 57.36 72.16 52,573,973 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
Myanmar 61.70 77.04 54,045,420 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
South Africa 55.74 63.80 58,558,270 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 60%
Tanzania 33.70 40.20 58,005,463 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
Thailand 72.96 77.22 69,625,582 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 60%

GCI Recovery Forecast


The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation Improving. The GCI Model forecasts that the situation is definitely improving and with the right discipline and compliance, the country can hope to see numbers diminish significantly in the near future.



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