The Global COVID-19 Index (GCI) - Nigeria Dashboard

The GCI Dashboard

Country Rank

44

Nigeria

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

4

Recovery Index
61.43
(Out of 100)

(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

1

Severity Index
23.95
(Out of 100)

(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

39.13

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)

Population

200,963,599

(Medium Density)

GNI per capita (US$)

1960

(Lower middle income)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating Guide

5	Countries who have made the most progress in curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)
4
3
2	Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis and who may need to consider maintaining stringent non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1

COVID-19 Severity Rating Guide

1	Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population (Relative Rating)
2
3	Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population (Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory

Nigeria - published 25.10.2020

1. Flights to Lagos (LOS) and Abuja (ABV) restarted. 2. Passengers must have a printed medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test. The test must have been taken at most 5 days before arrival. The certificate must be in English. - This does not apply to passengers younger than 10 years. 3. Passengers are subject to medical screening and self-isolation for 7 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.

1. Flights to Lagos (LOS) and Abuja (ABV) restarted.

2. Passengers must have a printed medical certificate with a negative Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test. The test must have been taken at most 5 days before arrival. The certificate
must be in English. - This does not apply to passengers younger than 10 years.

3. Passengers are subject to medical screening and self-isolation for 7 days.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.

Nigeria Infection Trend

How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.

Countries with Similar Characteristics

This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Country	Recovery Index	Population	Density	GNI per capita	Average Temperature since First Case (Celsius)	Match%
Nigeria	61.43	200,963,599	Medium Density	Lower middle income	26-30 deg
Ethiopia	47.47	112,078,730	Medium Density	Low income	26-30 deg	75%
Indonesia	62.02	270,625,568	Medium Density	Upper middle income	26-30 deg	75%
China	75.43	1,397,715,000	Medium Density	Upper middle income	< 10 deg	60%
Mexico	62.52	127,575,529	Medium Density	Upper middle income	21-25 deg	60%
United States	41.62	328,239,523	Medium Density	High income	< 10 deg	60%

GCI Recovery Forecast

The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.

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