The GCI Dashboard

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Country Rank

98


Iran

Recovery Rank for 180 countries/regions

Country Rank

97


Iran

Recovery Rank for 184 countries/regions

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

3

Recovery Index
63.65
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Recovery Rating

3

Recovery Index
51.15
(Out of 100)



(100 = Best, 0 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
41.19
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

COVID-19 Severity Rating

3

Severity Index
47.34
(Out of 100)



(0 = Best, 100 = Worst)

Stringency Rating

78.26

(100 = Strictest Measures, 0 = No Measures)


Population
82,913,906

(Medium Density)


GNI per capita (US$)

5470

(Upper middle income)
5 Countries who have made the most progress in
curtailing the spread of the pandemic and can be
used as examples of best practices (Relative Rating)
4
3
2 Countries who are struggling to cope with the crisis
and who may need to consider maintaining stringent
non-pharmaceutical measures (Relative Rating)
1
1 Countries who are coping with the crisis with a low percentage
of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
2
3 Countries who may be overwhelmed by the crisis with a high
percentage of infections and resulting deaths per population
(Relative Rating)
4
5

Travel Advisory


1. Suspension of visa on arrival facilities for passengers traveling as tourists.

2. E-visas can be obtained before departure at http://e_visa.mfa.ir/en/ . Passengers must have an e-visa confirmation.

3. Nationals of Iran who stayed abroad longer than 2 weeks and who do not have a medical certificate with a Coronavirus (COVID-19) Molecular test, written in English or approved
by an Iranian consulate, are subject to Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and quarantine.

4. Passengers must have a medical certificate with a Coronavirus (COVID-19) Molecular test issued at most 96 hours before arrival. The certificate must be in English or approved
by an Iranian consulate. Passengers with a medical certificate issued longer than 96 hours before arrival are subject to medical screening, Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and
quarantine, at their own expense. - This does not apply to passengers with a consular, diplomatic, official, service or special passports traveling on duty.

5. Passengers with a consular, diplomatic, official, service or special passport are subject to medical screening upon arrival, Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test and quarantine.

6. Passengers are subject to medical screening and quarantine.

7. Passengers could be subject to Coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test.

8. A completed Self-Declaration Form must be presented to the carrier before arrival. The form can be obtained at https://www.cao.ir/web/aeronautical-operations-monitoring/maunual

9. Flights from the United Kingdom are suspended until 4 January 2021.

Travel Advisory information provided and published with permission by IATA.

Iran Infection Trend


How can you tell if a curve is really flattening?

The number of daily confirmed cases has been used as an estimation of how severe the COVID-19 situation is in a given country. However, we’ve found that focusing on the country’s cumulative number of active cases gives a clearer picture of whether the infection curve is flattening.


Countries with Similar Characteristics


This table is generated by a GCI-developed tool to match countries based on their similar characteristics such as population, population density, income and climate.

Iran 51.15 63.65 82,913,906 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg
Country Recovery Index Recovery Index Population Density GNI per capita Average Temperature
since First Case (Celsius)		 Match%
South Africa 55.74 63.80 58,558,270 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Turkey 64.58 75.69 83,429,615 Medium Density Upper middle income 11-20 deg 100%
Thailand 72.96 77.22 69,625,582 Medium Density Upper middle income 26-30 deg 85%
Congo Democratic Republic 43.45 45.17 86,790,567 Medium Density Low income 26-30 deg 60%
Egypt 48.02 53.20 100,388,073 Medium Density Lower middle income 21-25 deg 60%
France 53.67 67.25 67,059,887 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 60%
Germany 60.23 70.52 83,132,799 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 60%
Italy 37.54 49.32 60,297,396 Medium Density High income < 10 deg 60%
Kenya 57.36 72.16 52,573,973 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%
Myanmar 61.70 77.04 54,045,420 Medium Density Lower middle income 26-30 deg 60%

GCI Recovery Forecast


The GCI Recovery Forecasting methodology relies on a Monte Carlo simulation model as we recognise that the factors that contribute to an increase / decrease in confirmed COVID19 cases are highly variable and subject to various localised circumstances and interventions. The P10 / P50 / P90 are probabilities assigned to the forecasts, with P10 being highly optimistic, and P90 being very conservative on recovery and reduction in cases. The forecast model is updated daily based on the latest case data.

Forecast Results:

Situation May Improve. The GCI Model indicates that the situation has a small probability of recovery, but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the recovery trend will improve significantly in the near future.



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